Sakamakon binciken ya nuna cewa, dogaro kan inganta ingancin makamashi da aka hada da CCUS da NETs kadai ba zai zama wata hanya mai tsadar gaske ba wajen kawar da gurbataccen iskar gas na sassan HTA na kasar Sin, musamman ma masana'antu masu nauyi.Musamman musamman, yin amfani da hydrogen mai tsabta a cikin sassan HTA na iya taimakawa kasar Sin cimma farashin tsaka tsaki na carbon yadda ya kamata idan aka kwatanta da yanayin ba tare da samar da hydrogen mai tsabta da amfani ba.Sakamakon ya ba da jagora mai karfi ga hanyar HTA ta kasar Sin da ke lalata makamashin nukiliya da kuma wani muhimmin batu ga sauran kasashen da ke fuskantar kalubale iri daya.
Ƙarfafa sassan masana'antu na HTA tare da tsabtataccen hydrogen
Muna gudanar da wani hadedde mafi ƙanƙanta ingantawa na rage hanyoyin zuwa carbon neutrality ga kasar Sin a 2060. An bayyana yanayi hudu samfurin samfurin a cikin Table 1: kasuwanci kamar yadda aka saba (BAU), kasar Sin ta kasa Ƙaddamar da gudummawar a karkashin yarjejeniyar Paris (NDC), net- fitar da sifili tare da aikace-aikacen babu-hydrogen (ZERO-NH) da sifili mai iska tare da hydrogen mai tsabta (ZERO-H).Sassan HTA a cikin wannan binciken sun haɗa da samar da siminti, ƙarfe da ƙarfe da manyan sinadarai (ciki har da ammonia, soda da caustic soda) da jigilar kaya masu nauyi, gami da jigilar kaya da jigilar kaya a cikin gida.An bayar da cikakkun bayanai a cikin sashin Hanyoyi da Ƙarin Bayanan kula 1-5.Dangane da sashin ƙarfe da ƙarfe, babban kaso na samarwa da ake samarwa a China (89.6%) shine tushen tsarin wutar lantarki na iskar oxygen, babban ƙalubale don ƙaddamar da haɓakar wannan.
masana'antu.Tsarin tanderun wutar lantarki ya ƙunshi kashi 10.4% na jimillar abin da ake samarwa a China a shekarar 2019, wanda ya kai kashi 17.5% kasa da matsakaicin kaso na duniya da kashi 59.3% kasa da na Amurka18.Mun yi nazarin fasahohin rage watsi da maɓalli 60 na ƙarfe a cikin ƙirar kuma mun rarraba su zuwa rukuni shida (Fig. 2a): haɓaka ingantaccen kayan aiki, aikin fasaha na ci gaba, lantarki, CCUS, hydrogen kore da hydrogen blue (Ƙarin Teburin 1).Kwatanta tsarin haɓaka farashin tsarin ZERO-H tare da yanayin NDC da ZERO-NH yana nuna cewa haɗar da zaɓin hydrogen mai tsabta zai haifar da raguwar carbon da aka sani saboda gabatarwar hydrogen-kai tsaye rage matakan ƙarfe (hydrogen-DRI).Lura cewa hydrogen zai iya aiki ba kawai a matsayin tushen makamashi a cikin ƙera ƙarfe ba har ma a matsayin wakili mai rage ƙwayar carbon akan ƙarin tushe a cikin tsarin fashewar Furnance-Basic Oxygen Furnance (BF-BOF) da 100% a cikin hanyar hydrogen-DRI.A karkashin ZERO-H, za a rage rabon BF-BOF zuwa 34% a cikin 2060, tare da 45% wutar lantarki arc da 21% hydrogen-DRI, kuma hydrogen mai tsabta zai ba da 29% na jimlar buƙatun makamashi na ƙarshe a cikin sashin.Tare da farashin grid don hasken rana da wutar lantarki ana sa ran zairaguwa zuwa dalar Amurka 38-40MWh-1 a cikin 205019, farashin koren hydrogen
Hakanan zai ragu, kuma hanyar 100% hydrogen-DRI na iya taka muhimmiyar rawa fiye da yadda aka sani a baya.Game da samar da siminti, samfurin ya haɗa da fasahar rage maɓalli 47 a cikin tsarin samarwa da aka rarraba zuwa kashi shida (Ƙarin Tables 2 da 3): ingancin makamashi, madadin mai, rage rabon clinker-to-ciment, CCUS, hydrogen hydrogen da blue hydrogen ( Hoto 2b).Sakamako ya nuna cewa ingantattun fasahohin ingantaccen makamashi na iya rage kawai 8-10% na jimillar hayaki na CO2 a cikin sashin siminti, da haɓakar ɓata-zafi da fasahohin mai-mai za su sami ƙarancin raguwa (4-8%).Fasaha don rage rabon siminti-zuwa siminti na iya samar da ingantacciyar ƙarancin carbon (50-70%), galibi gami da albarkatun ƙasa don samar da clinker ta amfani da ƙwanƙarar fashewar tanderu, kodayake masu sukar suna tambaya ko simintin da aka samu zai riƙe mahimman halayensa.Amma sakamakon na yanzu ya nuna cewa yin amfani da hydrogen tare da CCUS zai iya taimaka wa sashin siminti don cimma iskar CO2 kusa da sifili a cikin 2060.
A cikin yanayin ZERO-H, fasahar tushen hydrogen 20 (daga cikin fasahar rage 47) sun shiga cikin samar da siminti.Mun gano cewa matsakaicin farashin rage carbon carbon na fasahar hydrogen ya yi ƙasa da na CCUS na yau da kullun da hanyoyin canza man fetur (Fig. 2b).Bugu da ƙari kuma, ana sa ran hydrogen kore zai kasance mai rahusa fiye da hydrogen mai launin shuɗi bayan 2030 kamar yadda aka tattauna dalla-dalla a ƙasa, a kusa da US $ 0.7-US $ 1.6 kg-1 H2 (ref. 20), yana kawo gagarumin raguwar CO2 a cikin samar da zafin masana'antu a cikin samar da siminti. .Sakamakon yanzu ya nuna cewa zai iya rage 89-95% na CO2 daga tsarin dumama a cikin masana'antar China (Fig. 2b, fasahar fasaha.
28-47), wanda ya yi daidai da kiyasin Majalisar Hydrogen na 84-92% (Ref. 21).Dole ne CCUS ta rage fitar da iskar Clinker na CO2 a cikin ZERO-H da ZERO-NH.Har ila yau, muna kwatanta amfani da hydrogen a matsayin abincin abinci don samar da ammonia, methane, methanol da sauran sinadarai da aka jera a cikin bayanin samfurin.A cikin yanayin ZERO-H, samar da ammonia na tushen gas tare da zafi na hydrogen zai sami kashi 20% na jimlar samarwa a cikin 2060 (Fig. 3 da Ƙarin Ƙari na 4).Samfurin ya ƙunshi nau'ikan fasahar samar da methanol iri huɗu: kwal zuwa methanol (CTM), iskar gas zuwa methanol (CGTM), iskar gas zuwa methanol (NTM) da CGTM/NTM tare da zafin hydrogen.A cikin yanayin ZERO-H, CGTM / NTM tare da zafi na hydrogen zai iya cimma rabon samar da 21% a cikin 2060 (Fig. 3).Sinadarai kuma sune masu iya ɗaukar makamashi na hydrogen.Dangane da ƙididdigar haɗin gwiwarmu, hydrogen zai iya ƙunshi kashi 17% na makamashi na ƙarshe don samar da zafi a cikin masana'antar sinadarai ta 2060. Tare da makamashin halittu (18%) da wutar lantarki (32%), hydrogen yana da babban rawar da zai taka a ciki. 
decarbonization na Sin HTA sinadaran masana'antu (Fig. 4a).
Hoto 2 |yuwuwar rage ƙwayar carbon da rage farashin manyan fasahohin ragewa.a, Rukuni shida na fasahohin rage fitar da hayakin karfe 60.b, Rukuni shida na fasahar rage fitar da siminti guda 47.An jera fasahar ta lamba, tare da ma'anar ma'anar da aka haɗa cikin Ƙarin Tebu 1 don a da Ƙarin Tebu 2 don b.Matakan shirye-shiryen fasaha (TRLs) na kowane fasaha suna da alamar: TRL3, ra'ayi;TRL4, ƙananan samfuri;TRL5, babban samfuri;TRL6, cikakken samfurin a sikelin;TRL7, pre-kasuwanci zanga-zanga;TRL8, nuni;TRL10, farkon tallafi;TRL11, balagagge.
Nusar da hanyoyin sufuri na HTA tare da tsaftataccen hydrogen A bisa sakamakon ƙirar, hydrogen kuma yana da babban ƙarfin da zai iya lalata sashin sufuri na kasar Sin, ko da yake zai ɗauki lokaci.Baya ga LDVs, sauran hanyoyin sufuri da aka bincika a cikin ƙirar sun haɗa da motocin bas, manyan motoci (masu haske/kanana/matsakaici/nauyi), jigilar gida da layin dogo, wanda ke rufe yawancin sufuri a China.Don LDVs, motocin lantarki suna neman ci gaba da yin gasa mai tsada a nan gaba.A cikin ZERO-H, shigar da sinadarin hydrogen (HFC) na kasuwar LDV zai kai kashi 5% kawai a cikin 2060 (Fig. 3).Don bas ɗin jiragen ruwa, duk da haka, motocin HFC za su kasance mafi tsada fiye da hanyoyin lantarki a cikin 2045 kuma sun ƙunshi 61% na jimlar jiragen ruwa a cikin 2060 a cikin yanayin ZERO-H, tare da ragowar lantarki (Fig. 3).Dangane da manyan motoci, sakamakon ya bambanta da adadin kaya.Ƙunƙarar wutar lantarki za ta kori fiye da rabin jimillar manyan motoci masu haske nan da 2035 a ZERO-NH.Amma a cikin ZERO-H, manyan motocin HFC za su kasance masu gogayya fiye da manyan motocin hasken wutar lantarki nan da 2035 kuma sun ƙunshi kashi 53% na kasuwa nan da 2060. Game da manyan motoci masu nauyi, manyan motocin HFC za su kai kashi 66% na adadin. kasuwa a cikin 2060 a cikin yanayin ZERO-H.Diesel / bio-dizal / CNG (gas ɗin gas) HDVs (motoci masu nauyi) za su bar kasuwa bayan 2050 a cikin yanayin ZERO-NH da ZERO-H (Fig. 3).Motocin HFC suna da ƙarin fa'ida akan motocin lantarki a mafi kyawun aikinsu a cikin yanayin sanyi, masu mahimmanci a arewaci da yammacin China.Bayan safarar hanya, ƙirar tana nuna taruwar fasahar hydrogen a cikin jigilar kaya a cikin yanayin ZERO-H.Jigilar jigilar kayayyaki a cikin gida ta kasar Sin tana da karfin makamashi sosai, kuma kalubale ce mai matukar wahala musamman.Tsaftace hydrogen, musamman kamar a
feedstock don ammonia, yana ba da zaɓi don ƙaddamar da jigilar kayayyaki.Maganin mafi ƙarancin farashi a cikin yanayin ZERO-H yana haifar da 65% shigar ammonia-fueled da 12% na hydrogen-fueted jiragen ruwa a 2060 (Fig. 3).A cikin wannan yanayin, hydrogen zai lissafta matsakaicin kashi 56% na makamashi na ƙarshe na dukkan sassan sufuri a cikin 2060. Mun kuma tsara yadda ake amfani da hydrogen a cikin dumama mazaunin (Ƙarin bayanin 6), amma ɗaukarsa ba shi da komai kuma wannan takarda ta mai da hankali kan amfani da hydrogen a masana'antar HTA da jigilar kaya masu nauyi.Tattalin kudin da ake kashewa na tsaka tsaki na carbon ta amfani da tsaftataccen hydrogen na kasar Sin na rashin tsaka tsaki na carbon zai kasance halin sabunta ikon makamashi, tare da kawar da kwal a cikin amfani da makamashi na farko (Fig. 4).Abubuwan da ba burbushin halittu ba sun ƙunshi kashi 88% na haɗin makamashi na farko a cikin 2050 da 93% a cikin 2060 a ƙarƙashin ZERO-H.Wind da hasken rana za su ba da rabin makamashi na farko a cikin 2060. Amfani (TFEC) zai iya kaiwa 13% a cikin 2060. Yin la'akari da bambancin yanki na ikon samarwa a cikin manyan masana'antu ta yanki (Ƙarin Teburin 7), akwai larduna goma tare da hannun jari na hydrogen na TFEC fiye da matsakaicin ƙasa, ciki har da Mongolia ta ciki, Fujian, Shandong da Guangdong, masu wadatar hasken rana da kan teku da albarkatun iskar ruwa da/ko buƙatun masana'antu da yawa na hydrogen.A cikin yanayin ZERO-NH, jimlar kuɗin saka hannun jari don cimma tsaka-tsakin carbon har zuwa 2060 zai zama $ 20.63 tiriliyan, ko 1.58% na jimlar babban abin cikin gida (GDP) na 2020-2060.Matsakaicin ƙarin saka hannun jari na shekara-shekara zai kasance kusan dalar Amurka biliyan 516 a kowace shekara.Wannan sakamakon ya yi daidai da shirin rage dalar Amurka tiriliyan 15 na kasar Sin har zuwa shekarar 2050, matsakaicin sabon jarin da ya kai dalar Amurka biliyan 500 a duk shekara (misali 22).Duk da haka, gabatar da zaɓukan hydrogen masu tsafta a cikin tsarin makamashi na kasar Sin da kayayyakin abinci na masana'antu a cikin yanayin ZERO-H yana haifar da raguwar jarin jarin da ya kai dalar Amurka tiriliyan 18.91 nan da shekarar 2060 da na shekara-shekara.Za a rage zuba jari zuwa kasa da 1% na GDP a shekarar 2060 (Fig.4).Game da sassan HTA, farashin zuba jari na shekara-shekara a cikin waɗancansassan za su kasance kusan dalar Amurka biliyan 392 a kowace shekara a cikin ZERO-NHlabari, wanda ya yi daidai da hasashen makamashinHukumar mika mulki (dalar Amurka biliyan 400) (misali 23).Duk da haka, idan mai tsabta
An shigar da hydrogen a cikin tsarin makamashi da kayan abinci na sinadarai, yanayin ZERO-H yana nuna farashin zuba jari na shekara-shekara a sassan HTA zai iya rage zuwa dalar Amurka biliyan 359, musamman ta hanyar rage dogara ga CCUS ko NETs masu tsada.Sakamakonmu ya nuna cewa yin amfani da hydrogen mai tsafta zai iya ceton dalar Amurka tiriliyan 1.72 a cikin kuɗin saka hannun jari kuma ya guje wa asarar kashi 0.13% a cikin jimillar GDP (2020-2060) idan aka kwatanta da hanyar ba tare da hydrogen ba har zuwa 2060.
Hoto 3 |Shigar da fasaha a cikin sassan HTA na yau da kullun.Sakamako a ƙarƙashin BAU, NDC, ZERO-NH da ZERO-H scenarios (2020-2060).A cikin kowace shekara mai mahimmanci, takamaiman shigar fasahar fasaha a sassa daban-daban ana nuna su ta sanduna masu launi, inda kowane mashaya ke da kashi 100 na shigar ciki har zuwa 100% (don cikakken inuwa mai inuwa).An inganta fasahar ta hanyar nau'ikan daban-daban (waɗanda aka nuna a almara).CNG, iskar gas da aka matsa;LPG, iskar gas mai ruwa;LNG, iskar gas na ruwa;w/wo, tare da ko babu;EAF, wutar lantarki arc;NSP, sabon tsarin dakatarwa preheater bushe tsari;WHR, sharar da zafi dawo da.
Lokacin aikawa: Maris 13-2023
